Expectations of a warm autumn ignite a rebound in gas prices; bulls test highs before inventory report, while slight export declines limit further upside.

智通财经2026/08/26 14:11

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U.S. natural gas futures rose more than 3% on Wednesday, hitting a more than one-week high, as weather forecasts indicate that temperatures will remain above normal until mid-September, boosting expectations for cooling demand. The market is actively pricing in these factors ahead of the EIA weekly inventory report.
The nearby September contract settled at about $2.84 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), having reached an intraday high of around $2.86, while the soon-to-be front-month October contract also climbed approximately 2.1%. The structure of nearby contracts reflects that the short-term weather premium has not yet completely faded.
Consulting firms point out that the current rebound is mainly driven by further adjustments in short-term temperature forecasts. However, as the market enters the shoulder season next month, the impact of temperatures on prices will gradually weaken, putting the sustainability of the rally into question.
On the supply side, since August, average daily production in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to about 11.14 billion cubic feet, setting a new monthly record after exceeding July’s high. Meanwhile, LNG export volumes have slightly declined compared to the previous month. Record-high production combined with marginally lower exports may limit further upside momentum.
The market expects last week’s inventory to have increased by about 2.5 billion cubic feet, which is below the five-year average increment for the same period. If the actual data deviates from expectations, short-term volatility could ensue. Subsequent attention will focus on temperature patterns and whether export demand can pick up again to determine the extent of the rebound.

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Expectations of a warm autumn ignite a rebound in gas prices; bulls test highs before inventory report, while slight export declines limit further upside.

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