Everbright Futures 0826 Gold Commentary: Improved Macro Sentiment, Gold Trades in a Narrow Range Overnight

Overnight, London spot precious metals experienced narrow fluctuations, reaching $4696.83 intraday, setting a new high since mid-May and closing up 0.21%.

Significant progress has been reported in US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices. Gold remains strong in the short term. Tonight, the US July PCE inflation data and the revised second-quarter GDP will be released, coinciding with the eve of the Jackson Hole annual meeting, and these results could impact US dollar and interest rate expectations.

On the macro front, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for August fell to 89.4, the lowest since January this year, dropping to a seven-month low. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's August Consumer Sentiment Index declined for the first time in three months, with heightened concerns about deteriorating business conditions and rising inflation. According to Wallstreet Insights, Boston Fed President Collins stated that if inflation fails to continue improving, tightening policy in the near term would be appropriate. Inflation faces upward risks from supply shocks and stronger-than-expected economic activity, and AI infrastructure appears to be pushing up core goods inflation. In terms of geopolitics, further significant advances have been reported in US-Iran negotiations, with media claiming consensus has been reached on the terms of the ceasefire agreement, including free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Macro sentiment is warming, and gold maintains a strong trend. However, short-term rhythm still needs attention, as Fed Chair Walsh will give his first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on the 28th—if he sends a clear anti-inflation signal, it may trigger a market repricing of rate hike expectations for September.

Written by: Li Qi

Professional Qualification: F3046227

Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0016145

Editor: Zhu Henan