CICC Wealth Futures: Rising oil prices boost rate hike expectations, gold remains weak in the short term

(1) CICC Wealth Futures pointed out that, with the rise in oil prices, the market-implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 41.7%. (2) At the same time, the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike has also climbed from 4.7% a week ago to 15.7%, and the probability of a rate hike in 2026 once surged above 80%. (3) The gold market continues its downward trend, and as one of the most affected assets under high oil prices, gold remains weak in the short term.