EUR: Tightening expectations support Euro – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole highlights that markets now price only 6bp for a European Central Bank (ECB) hike on 30 April, while around 55bp remains priced by year-end. He expects tightening expectations to stay above 50bp unless the ECB turns explicitly dovish, leaving the Euro relatively well positioned versus the Japanese Yen (JPY) and Swiss Franc (CHF), with EUR/USD seen stabilising around or slightly below 1.1700.
ECB path underpins single currency
"Pricing for a 30 April hike from the European Central Bank is now only 6bp. That mirrors not just the de-escalation (55bp remains priced in by year-end), but probably the view that the ECB won’t have enough evidence to act, and the energy price outlook may still be uncertain in three weeks’ time."
"June and September look like the market’s preferred windows for rate hikes, although a follow‑up move in July after a June hike is around 50% priced."
"What matters most at this stage is the stickiness of tightening expectations. As discussed on several occasions, we expect pricing to remain above 50bp unless the ECB delivers explicit dovish signals, even if oil prices ease somewhat further."
"That backdrop leaves the euro well-placed, in our view, to outperform other low‑yielders such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc."
"For EUR/USD, we look for some stabilisation around or slightly below 1.170 for now, with a good deal of positives already in the price."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Palantir (PLTR.US) commercial revenue surpasses government for the first time, annual forecast revised up to $8.53 billion
Palantir’s Q3 revenue increased by 96% year-on-year to $2.31 billion, with its commercial business surpassing government contracts for the first time. CEO Karp stated that demand for sovereign AI remains strong, and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $8.53 billion. Despite stock price volatility after hours, both profit indicators exceeded expectations.
US and Iran Show 'Willingness to Negotiate', Causing Global Energy Prices to Plummet
Iran's Supreme Leader has authorized the government to negotiate, while Trump has explicitly stated he "will not" resume military strikes if re-elected. The energy market is under pressure across the board: Brent crude plummeted over 6% in a single day, WTI fell below the $100 mark, and European benchmark natural gas futures at one point plunged nearly 11%. With the US election approaching, Trump faces both electoral challenges and pressure from Israel to initiate conflict. Iran has proposed a "seven-day plan" as its bottom line for reopening the Strait, with substantial underlying disagreements. Coupled with a sharp global inventory reduction of nearly 1 billion barrels, the downside for oil prices may be limited.
Apple (AAPL.US) doesn't burn money. Is the AI sell-off "safe haven" really secure?
Apple, which does not participate in the AI arms race, has become a "safe haven" amid the AI sell-off; however, with its high valuation, Apple also faces a judgment on its growth.
Apple's revenue and earnings last quarter exceeded expectations, but high memory costs, shrinking gross margin, weaker performance in China, and slowing growth in services | Earnings Report Insights
In the fourth fiscal quarter ending at the end of September, Apple's total revenue increased nearly 12% year-on-year. iPhone revenue exceeded expectations with a 17.5% increase, and Mac revenue grew nearly 24%, surpassing analysts' expectations by 11%. However, iPad and wearable device revenue both fell short of expectations. EPS rose 14% year-on-year, and the gross margin of 47.9% reached its lowest point in a year, supported by U.S. tariff exemptions. Service revenue hit a record high for a single quarter. Greater China revenue increased 21%, though it was still 6.5% below analyst expectations. For the full fiscal year, revenue set a historic record, but shareholder returns declined, with stock repurchases down nearly 5% from last year to $86.4 billion. During the earnings call, management disclosed that rising memory prices are eroding profit margins, and guidance for next quarter’s gross margin is only 45% to 46%, much lower than this quarter’s 47.9%. After-hours stock price fluctuated and turned downward, at one point dropping more than 4%.
Crypto prices
More
