Analysis: A Polymarket account cluster made approximately $600,000 in profits by predicting the Israel-Palestine ceasefire event

Foresight News reports, according to monitoring by Bubblemaps, the same group of Polymarket accounts earned approximately $600,000 last night from predicting a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, and subsequently changed their account names. In addition, these accounts have recently continued to bet on ceasefire outcomes, wagering $25,000 (probability 6%) on April 7 and $75,000 (probability 15%) on April 15, with total profits around $563,000.

A month ago, Bubblemaps connected four on-chain Polymarket accounts with high win rates. Their predictions included a U.S. surprise attack on Iran on February 28, 2026; Israel launching Operation "Rising Lion" in Iran on June 13, 2025; and a U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025. This cluster also consistently changed account names. Although their ceasefire predictions were not always completely accurate, their previous performance regarding the Iran attack predictions was outstanding, suggesting possible access to more reliable information.