Investors move back to cash in 2022-style shift, JPM says
Investing.com -- Investors are rebuilding cash positions in a pattern reminiscent of 2022 as geopolitical and policy uncertainty persists, according to a note from JPMorgan on Thursday.
Quant strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said investors have been “abandoning equities, bonds and gold all at the same time, preferring instead to raise their cash allocations” since the start of the Iran war.
JPMorgan said the shift reflects rising concern that central banks could repeat past policy mistakes.
“The inversion at the front end of core yield curves has raised concerns about central bank policy mistakes in a similar fashion to 2022,” Panigirtzoglou wrote, adding there is still “little evidence of de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations.”
Panigirtzoglou said implied cash allocations, constructed using global M2 relative to equities and bonds, have risen only modestly so far but remain “still low by historical standards,” which represents “a headwind to both equities and bonds” while uncertainty remains elevated.
Concerns tied to the Middle East conflict have also driven a repricing in global rate markets.
JPMorgan said investors fear that the energy shock “will compound an inflation problem, inducing central banks to tighten policy this year, and raising the risk of a policy mistake.”
Rate markets have priced out earlier cuts and “priced in significant rate hikes … over the coming three quarters,” the bank added.
Equity positioning has fallen sharply, with JPMorgan’s overall indicator now at the 62nd percentile, down from 81 percent in late January.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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