XRP nears $1.40 as SOPR signals capitulation: Is recovery ahead?

Ripple [XRP] is facing renewed distribution pressure as holders increasingly move coins at losses. This shift is evident in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which recently fell from about 1.16 to 0.96.

Such a decline shows that sellers now accept prices below their original cost basis, reflecting growing stress among market participants.

Earlier in the cycle, SOPR frequently stayed above 1.05–1.15, aligning with XRP’s rally toward the $3 region. During that phase, investors realized profits as bullish momentum attracted fresh liquidity.

However, as volatility returned to the crypto market, selling pressure steadily increased, eroding investor confidence and shifting overall sentiment.

At the same time, XRP’s price drifted toward $1.40 by March, while the 30-day EMA of SOPR slipped below the 1.0 threshold. This transition signals that more transactions now lock in losses rather than gains.

Such behavior often reflects capitulation among weaker holders, while stronger participants wait for clearer market direction, leaving sentiment divided across the XRP ecosystem.

XRPL activity holds strong 

XRP has faced persistent selling pressure during the first quarter of 2026, pushing the token toward $1.40 amid weakening retail sentiment. Even so, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) continues showing strong structural activity beneath the price decline.

Throughout this period, the network has maintained between 1.8 million and 2.5 million daily successful payments, reflecting sustained usage across the ecosystem.

At the same time, XRPL throughput remains stable near 18–25 transactions per second, indicating consistent settlement capacity even during market stress.

Meanwhile, Active Addresses remain stable between 35,000 and 40,000. These figures suggest consistent user participation rather than collapsing engagement.

Additionally, the network now exceeds 7.68 million activated accounts, reinforcing long-term ecosystem expansion.

This steady activity implies that utility-driven flows, cross-border transfers, and DEX operations continue, even while market sentiment weakens and retail participants capitulate.

 XRP structure resembles prior recovery conditions

At press time, XRP traded near $1.40 during the February–March correction as Realized Losses reached -$1.93 billion, marking the largest weekly drawdown since 2022.

A similar pattern emerged during the 2021–2022 cycle, when XRP dropped from $1.96 to $0.30 amid persistent capitulation. During that time, SOPR consistently fell below 1.0, signaling sustained selling at a loss

However, recovery signals gradually emerged as network participation strengthened, indicating that more users were engaging with the network despite the low price levels.

Daily Active Addresses later surged about 490% from the 2022 lows, while price remained subdued. This divergence preceded a 114% rally over the following eight months.

Currently, 35,000–40,000 active addresses remain engaged. If SOPR reclaims 1.0, conditions may begin shifting toward stabilization and gradual recovery.

Final Summary

• Ripple capitulation signals intensifying loss realization as SOPR drops below 1.0, while persistent XRPL activity suggests underlying network demand remains intact.

• XRP’s market structure now mirrors past recovery phases, where capitulation and steady network participation historically preceded gradual price rebounds.