Up to eight major wallets from the ZachXBT prediction market on Polymarket may have had some insider tips. The wallets were singled out for their significant gains after betting on Axiom as the target of research.
As Cryptopolitan reported earlier, ZachXBT admitted he may have leaked some of his research in the process of the investigation. The new project by the on-chain researcher caught an Axiom employee, who was offering access and doxing of high-profile KOLs and traders, using the company’s internal tools.
Initially, the research by ZachXBT caused multiple speculations, as Meteora was seen as the most probable candidate. At that time, the odds of Axiom being the outcome were down to around 15%, allowing early traders to make more significant gains.
Over 3,600 wallets bet on Axiom
The ZachXBT prediction pair caused a rush to track the most probable outcome and copy some of the wallets. As a result, 3,630 wallets joined the prediction on the side of Axiom.
A total of 56.2% of the addresses were in profit, depending on the time of joining the market or exiting.
The top 10 largest profit addresses contained eight suspicious wallets. Those wallets had limited trades or were just created to bet on Axiom. In total, the earnings of those eight wallets reached $1.2M.
Three addresses traded Axiom more aggressively and locked in over $100,000 each. The accounts included predictorxyz, with $411,600 in profit, with two other wallets locking in $354,000 and $114,000. The leading wallet has already bridged out or traded the Polymarket reward, based on DeBank data.
A total of 47 wallets also had profits between $10,000 and $100,000, for a combined profit of $1.34M.
There were also enough addresses for exit liquidity, with two addresses losing over $100K each, and 50 addresses with losses between $10,000 and $100,000, for a combined $1.239M.
Who started the Axiom insider rumors?
The wallet that started the rumors and shifted bets to Axiom was not among the biggest winners. An initial account made a bet on Axiom while the odds were still relatively low, starting multiple copy-trades. However, the account only locked around $39,000 in gains, while other traders waited until resolution for a high return.
Despite the claims of insider trading, the market still balanced supply and demand. However, the Polymarket pairs showed a viral issue could lead to deep losses and lead to misguided trading.
Smaller markets also emerged around the ZachXBT research, betting on the exact hour. Those markets have not shown any signs of insider trading and have had much lower volumes.
