QCP: Bitcoin rebounds above the key $88,000 level, options data indicates the market will remain volatile rather than crash

BlockBeats News, January 28, QCP released its daily market analysis stating, "Bitcoin has rebounded above the key level of $88,000. Recently, whenever it fell below this level, it often quickly triggered liquidation-led accelerated declines; conversely, a swift recovery tends to pull the price back into the consolidation range. Next, the market will face a series of intensive U.S. macro events: the FOMC rate decision on January 28; the government funding deadline on January 30, which keeps the risk of a shutdown present; and the Senate rescheduling discussions on crypto market structure legislation. The options market clearly reflects this asymmetry. Overall volatility remains controlled, and the term structure maintains a positive spread, so the baseline scenario remains consolidation rather than a sharp crash."

In terms of fiscal risk, the key issue is whether Washington can smoothly resolve the January 30 funding problem. If a temporary solution is passed in time, short-term risk premiums are expected to compress, and crypto assets will behave more like pure Beta trades; if there is a brief misstep, the market may fluctuate first but recover after an agreement is reached; if the deadlock persists, it could tighten liquidity and force broader market de-risking.

The nearer key event is the Federal Reserve. The baseline expectation remains unchanged rates, with the market focus on when rate cuts will resume. Inflation is still above 2%, while employment is starting to weaken, prompting the committee to remain cautious and data-dependent. With the Fed's independence under scrutiny, it is expected to emphasize its independence and reiterate the stance of 'waiting for more data'; if a hawkish hold occurs, it may trigger a rebound in the dollar and bring short-term volatility to risk assets."