Volume surges in prediction markets with Kalshi leading the way.
- Kalshi surpasses its competitor's measurement in global volume.
- Polymarket reports record number of active users and new markets.
- The market for forecasting events and crypto assets is experiencing renewed interest.
In October, Polymarket showed a significant recovery in engagement, while Kalshi stood out in forecast market volume. Polymarket reached 477.850 monthly active traders, surpassing the previous record of 462.600, set in January. This number represents a 93,7% growth compared to September, which registered 246.610 users.
During the same period, the platform increased its monthly volume to US$3,02 billion, three times more than the amount maintained between February and August, and opened 38.270 new markets in October—almost triple the number recorded in August. According to Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research:
“In October, there was an increase in activity, with cryptocurrency traders sharing new strategies to profit from liquidity provisioning, arbitrage, and information asymmetry, due to Polymarket's decentralized access and its function as an event-driven options trading platform.”
However, Kalshi surpassed Polymarket in monthly volume, reaching US$4,4 billion in October, consolidating its leadership in this segment. The company has attracted the attention of venture capitalists, with valuations reaching US$12 billion according to recent reports. Kalshi operates under license in the United States via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which broadens its institutional reach.
Meanwhile, Polymarket is preparing the imminent launch of its native token POLY and an airdrop for qualified users, as well as restructuring to relaunch in the US by the end of November, after withdrawing from the American market in 2022 following an agreement with the CFTC. The resumption of these metrics and the intensification of competition between the two platforms suggest that the event prediction market, linked to crypto assets and finance, is being seen as a new frontier.
The increase in activity on the platforms reflects both the growing interest of traders and the greater inflow of capital and users seeking liquidity and diversification outside of traditional markets. With these developments, the prediction markets space is adjusting to serve both retail and institutional audiences, establishing new foundations for competitiveness and innovation.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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