'Crypto strikes back': Bitcoin decouples from stocks to tap $74K as institutional demand returns despite energy-driven market turmoil

Bitcoin briefly climbed above $74,000 on Monday, extending weekly gains as institutional inflows and geopolitical tensions impact how the cryptocurrency trades alongside traditional assets.

The world’s largest digital asset has risen roughly 7% over the past week, according to The Block’s price page, while ether has outperformed with gains of about 13%.

Both moves occurred during a period of market turbulence driven by escalating conflict involving Iran and rising volatility in energy markets.

Safe haven narrative

Analysts say crypto has held up better than many traditional assets during the latest bout of geopolitical stress. While equities and gold have struggled, bitcoin and ETH pushed higher in recent sessions, prompting renewed discussion of bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge.

"Crypto strikes back," analysts at QCP Capital wrote in a market note, pointing to bitcoin’s resilience as global markets react to war-driven uncertainty and higher oil prices.

The firm said rising tensions appear to be pushing more activity onchain as participants seek cross-border liquidity during periods of financial disruption.

Signs of fresh capital entering the ecosystem are also emerging. USDC supply recently reached a record high of $81.1 billion, lifting overall stablecoin liquidity and suggesting new funds may be entering crypto markets during the current macro upheaval.

Institutional demand surges amid wartime

Institutional demand is reinforcing that trend too. Global crypto exchange-traded products recorded about $1 billion in inflows last week, extending a three-week streak of positive flows led largely by U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, according to CoinShares data previously reported by The Block.

Corporate buyers are also continuing to accumulate. Treasury allocations are currently acquiring bitcoin at roughly 2.8 times the rate of newly mined supply, creating a structural imbalance between demand and issuance, according to the Blockhead Research Network (BRN).

Balance sheet adoption has expanded alongside that shift, Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in a March 16 note. Publicly traded companies collectively hold more than 1.15 million BTC — about 5.5% of total supply — as firms increasingly treat the asset as a strategic reserve.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy has continued adding to its bitcoin holdings, while spot ETF inflows have persisted in recent sessions. BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF alone has attracted roughly $1.75 billion over the past three weeks, according to market data cited by QCP Capital.

Multiple analysts opined that the renewed demand has helped bitcoin diverge from equity markets in recent weeks. Over the past five weeks, the S&P 500 has fallen roughly 2.2% while bitcoin has gained around 2.4%, marking a rare stretch where the cryptocurrency trades independently from broader risk assets.

Macro and energy

Amid the mix of signals, macro forces seemingly persist as the dominant wildcard for markets.

Energy prices have surged as the conflict around Iran threatens global supply routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for oil shipments.

Crude briefly climbed above $100 earlier this month, while U.S. gasoline prices reached their highest level since April 2024.

The spike in energy costs has complicated monetary policy expectations. Markets have sharply scaled back projections for Federal Reserve rate cuts, now pricing in only limited easing this year as higher oil prices risk reigniting inflation.

Fragility lingers

Market structure data suggests the rally could prove fragile, however. Liquidity across the wider crypto market has thinned since late January, and onchain metrics show many recent buyers are still underwater. Short-term holder supply in profit remains below 50%, a level typically associated with the early stages of market recovery, per Glassnode data.

Derivatives positioning is also drawing attention as prices approach key levels. Options markets show heavy open interest around the $75,000 strike expiring in March 2026, with roughly 8,000 contracts clustered at that level.

Both QCP Capital and Glassnode say the positioning could amplify price moves if bitcoin pushes higher. Market makers appear structurally short with calls around the $75,000 strike, meaning hedging flows may accelerate if spot prices move through that zone.

"A large pocket of negative gamma sits near the $75K strike," Glassnode said, adding that hedging activity could intensify as bitcoin approaches the level.

Accumulation, not euphoria

For now, analysts say the market is likely to remain range-bound while macro risks dominate sentiment.

Accumulation patterns suggest buyers have been rebuilding positions between roughly $62,000 and $72,000, forming a broad demand zone that could shape the next phase of the cycle.

However, thin liquidity and heavy leverage clusters around $71,000 to $73,500 may continue to drive short-term volatility.

The coming sessions may prove decisive. If bitcoin can break through the dense options positioning near $75,000, derivatives hedging could accelerate the rally. Failure to do so may leave the market consolidating as investors wait for clarity on the war, energy markets, and the Federal Reserve’s next move.